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Second attempt at object tracking via ML

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gitma2

A second attempt at target motion analysis (TMA) from bearings alone with machine learning, starting from what debrief/Gitma established.

gitma showed that a plain recurrent regressor learns usable range, course and speed from simulated bearings, is more robust than least squares in near-unobservable geometry, and beats a tuned IMM tracker after a target turn, but that it stays about 3 × the Cramér–Rao bound on straight legs and gives back its post-turn gains when the target holds course. gitma2 keeps the network for judgement (when the target manoeuvred, how much to trust each bearing, where to start) and lets a differentiable piecewise-constant-velocity batch solve do the numerics.

Status

Step State
Spec 001, types and generator implemented: the Python generator reproduces gitma's files byte for byte (3 fixtures, 220 scenarios, zero one-ulp residuals)
Spec 002, references, physics layer, P0 implemented: gitma's references and evaluation reproduced; physics layer equals batch least squares and reproduces the oracle ceiling; exported graph agrees across Python, browser and Java runtimes within the 1e-5 gate in double (observed about 1e-11); P0 passed (agent panel round 3, experiments/20261101-p0-r4/)

Quick start

Requires Python 3.12 (via uv); Node 22 for the site only.

uv sync
uv run pytest -q
uv run tma2-generate --seed 777 --count 1000 --out data/demo \
  --ranges tests/fixtures/gitma/phase4-seed777/ranges.json \
  --heldout-ranges tests/fixtures/gitma/phase4-seed777/heldout-ranges.json

Types are generated from schema/tma.yaml (uv run python scripts/gen_types.py; CI fails if stale). Walkthrough: specs/001-types-generator/quickstart.md.

All data is simulated; nothing above OFFICIAL belongs in this repository.

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